Can China achieve its 2030 energy development targets by fulfilling carbon intensity reduction commitments?

Highlights: • A dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China was introduced. • Linkages between China's carbon targets and energy targets were explored. • China's carbon emission reduction pledge cannot guarantee all energy objectives. • The lower carbon intensity control limit is possible in 2030 with current efforts. • A carbon tax can realize non-fossil energy objectives except natural gas by 2030. -- Abstract: China has proposed carbon intensity targets and energy development targets for 2030. This study investigates the linkages between these targets and assesses if China can achieve its energy development targets by fulfilling its carbon reduction commitments. To this end, it quantitatively evaluates the impact of carbon emission controls on the Chinese economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that China's carbon abatement pledge cannot guarantee achievement of all energy objectives. China is likely to reach the upper limit of its carbon intensity target in 2020 and the lower limit in 2030 if current abatement efforts are maintained. To achieve the upper limit in 2030, the carbon price will be CNY 83/tCO₂. The energy consumption target for 2020 is likely to be realized but the 2030 target is not. A more stringent price constraint on carbon emissions would be helpful to the achievement of the non-fossil energy target in 2030, but would have a limited promoting effect on natural gas development. Our results reveal the linkages between China's energy targets and carbon emission targets, which is valuable to the cost-effective dual control of energy consumption and carbon emission.