Study of relationship between MUF correlation and detection sensitivity of statistical analysis

Various kinds of statistical analysis are proposed to NRTA (Near Real Time Materials Accountancy) which was devised to satisfy the timeliness goal of one of the detection goals of IAEA. It will be presumed that different statistical analysis results will occur between the case of considered rigorous error propagation (with MUF correlation) and the case of simplified error propagation (without MUF correlation). Therefore, measurement simulation and decision analysis were done using flow simulation of 800 MTHM/Y model reprocessing plant, and relationship between MUF correlation and detection sensitivity and false alarm of statistical analysis was studied. Specific character of material accountancy for 800 MTHM/Y model reprocessing plant was grasped by this simulation. It also became clear that MUF correlation decreases not only false alarm but also detection probability for protracted loss in case of CUMUF test and Page's test applied to NRTA. (author)