China

This paper reports on the reason for China's future nuclear policy. First, assuming a continued decline in superpower influence, China's focus will be on regional issues. The policies of Japan, the NICs and other Chinese neighbors will be more relevant than those of the superpowers. Second, Chinese domestic politics will have to resume the road to reform. A more unstable and suspicious Chinese leadership will perceive a more hostile and unstable world. Even when China was on the path to reform, its foreign relations were not always peaceful. However, it would be wrong to suggest that even a more xenophobic and unstable Chinese leadership would necessarily expand China's nuclear capability or lead China into a major war. Even at the height of the Cultural Revolution, Chinese foreign policy was careful, nuclear proliferation was avoided and crises were well-managed. Still China's basic domestic and foreign policy needs will likely remain unfulfilled for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, although the East Asian balance of power may not appear to be particularly dangerous at present, there is enough uncertainty to ensure that China remains a nuclear power and a maverick one at that at least in the near term