An evaluation of cost estimates of nuclear power reactor decommissioning in Sweden, Germany and the United States

Nominal base decommissioning cost estimates in Sweden, Germany and the US differ by large amounts. Even after adjustments to normalize the work scopes, significant cost differences remain. Variations in national cost structures, achievable productivity, the extent of preexisting infrastructure and institutional factors all contribute to make up the differences. Exchange rate aberrations are a complication for which appropriate adjustments have to be made in order to achieve a meaningful comparison. Our analyses demonstrate that virtually all these differences between the Swedish, German and US estimates can be explained by these factors. In terms of the overall reasonableness of the Swedish estimate as a basis for making financial provisions, there remain some issues that may warrant further investigation. One is the potential for and financial consequences of a serious interruption to the proposed sea transportation system. Secondly, the limited number of individual system analyses we have performed indicated some significant potential underestimates. For example, dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel costs appear to be underestimated by up to 70 MSEK (about 10 MUSD) per reactor, or up to 900 MSEK for the whole Swedish program of 12 reactors. Overall, the Swedish estimates appear to be built up in a logical and reasonable way. Our analyses indicate that some internal inconsistencies exist and that some specific input data assumptions may not be valid. In summary, the credibility of the estimates would benefit from further refinement of the scenarios and assumptions. 21 refs., 15 figs., 42 tabs