The importance of speculative uranium deposits

Since current known uranium deposits (5 million t U) will either have been exhausted by the end of the century, or must be held in reserve for the thermal converter reactors which will be in operation by that time, the development of nuclear energy after the year 2000 will depend to a large extent on the early availability of speculative uranium deposits. The speculative deposits represent, by definition, the quantities of uranium which are presumed to exist in addition to the 'known' deposits and which can ultimately be exploited according to current technical-economic and ecological standpoints. When viewed critically, however, the US-DOE model used for this purpose projects an over-optimistic picture of uranium supplies and was, therefore, only accepted by the INFCE with a series of limitations and reservations. Overall the model represents a well-founded reassurance for future uranium exploration - nothing more and nothing less. The model clearly shows that due to the long lead-in times considerable expenditure will be required for uranium exploration in the coming years. It is probable that this level of investment will have to be increased several times over in the 1990s as the search moves to greater depths and to less-accessible regions. (orig./UA)