Artificial intelligence and forecast of the impact of the solar activity on the Earth's magnetic field

In this thesis, we present models which belongs to the field of artificial intelligence to predict the geomagnetic index am based on solar wind parameters. This is done in terms to provide operational models based on data recorded by the ACE satellite located at the Lagrangian point L1. Currently, there is no model providing predictions of the geomagnetic index am. To predict this index, we have relied on nonlinear models called neural networks, allowing to model the complex and nonlinear dynamic of the Earth's magnetosphere. First, we have worked on the development and the optimisation of basics neural networks like the multilayer perceptron. These models have proven in space weather to predict geomagnetic index specific to current systems like the Dst index, characteristic of the ring current, as well as the global geomagnetic index Kp. In particular, we have studied a temporal network, called the Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) and we assessed its ability to predict the geomagnetic index am within one hour, base only on solar wind parameters. We have analysed the sensitivity of neural network performance when considering on one hand data from the OMNI database at the bow shock, and on the other hand data from the ACE satellite at the L1 point. After studying the ability of neural networks to predict the geomagnetic index am, we have developed a neural network which has never been used before in Space Weather, the Long Short Term Memory or LSTM. Like the TDNN, this network provides am prediction based only on solar wind parameters. We have optimised this network to model at best the magnetosphere behaviour and obtained better performance than the one obtained with the TDNN. We continued the development and the optimisation of the LSTM network by using coupling functions as neural network features, and by developing multi-output networks to predict the sectorial am also called aσ?, specific to each Magnetic Local Time sector. Finally, we developed a brand new technique combining the LSTM network and Gaussian process, to provide probabilistic predictions up to six hours ahead of geomagnetic index Dst and am. This method has been first developed to predict Dst to be able to compare the performance of this model with reference models, and then applied to the geomagnetic index am. (author)