The surface water model for assessing Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept

Canada's Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program (NFWMP) is investigating the concept of disposal of nuclear fuel waste in a vault excavated deep in crystalline rock on the Canadian Shield. Probabilistic vault, geosphere, and biosphere models are implemented using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to trace nuclides transported in groundwater to the surface environment and humans far into the future. This paper describes the surface water submodel and its parameter values, sensitivity analysis, and validation. The surface water model is a simple, time-dependent, mass balance model of a lake that calculates radioactive and stable isotope contaminant concentrations in lake water and sediment. These concentrations are input to the other submodels and used to predict the radiological dose to humans and other biota. Parameter values in the model are based on the literature and the author's own data, and are generic to Canadian Shield lakes. Most parameters are represented by log normally distributed probability density functions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that nuclide concentrations in lake water and sediment are governed primarily by hydrological flushing with catchment area being the most important parameter. When catchment area is held constant lake area and nuclide transfer rate from water to sediment strongly influence concentrations in both water and sediment. For volatile nuclides, gaseous evasion also has a marked influence on concentrations in both water and sediment, whereas sedimentation rate strongly influences sediment nuclide concentrations. Validation tests demonstrate that the models predictions for 60Co, 134Cs, 3H, P, Cd and Ca are consistent with empirical data when uncertainties are taken into account