Techniques Applied in the COSYMA Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (invited paper)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis studies for the program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological consequences of nuclear accidents have been performed to obtain a deeper insight into the propagation of parameter uncertainties through different submodules and to quantify their contribution to uncertainty and sensitivity in a final overall uncertainty analysis of the complete program system COSYMA. Some strategies are given for performing uncertainty analysis runs for submodules and/or the complete complex program system COSYMA and guidelines explain how to post-process and to reduce the bulk of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results. (author)