Predictive value of imaging evaluation in stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal carcinoma patients treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy

Objective: Retrospectively analyzed the predictive value of imaging evaluation in stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal carcinoma patients treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy. Methods: A total of 145 stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal carcinoma pantients were enrolled. We analyzed the overall survival rates of the patients with pathological complete response (pCR) and those without (NpCR), X-film complete response (xCR) and those without (NxCR), RECIST complete response (rCR) and those without (NrCR). And we used Cox model for multivariate analysis. Results: The rates of pCR, xCR and rCR were 33.8%, 42.8% and 38.6% for all patients, respectively. The 1-,3- 5-year overall survival rates were 87.8%, 79.6%, 61.2% for pCR patients and 75%, 40.6%, 24.0% for NpCR patients(χ² = 20.215, P < 0.05), respectively; The 1-, 3- 5-year overall survival rates were 80.6%, 66.1%, 51.6% for xCR patients and 75%, 44.6%, 25.3% for NxCR patients(χ² = 8.895, P < 0.05), respectively; The 1-, 3- 5-year overall survival rates were 83.9%, 69.6%, 53.6% for rCR patients and 76.4%, 46.1%, 25.8% for NxCR patients(χ² = 10.862, P < 0.05), respectively. Multivariate survival analysis using Cox regression model showed that pCR was a positive independent prognostic factor (HR = 0.333, 95% CI : 0.200 - 0.554, P < 0.05). Conclusions: Short-term imaging evaluation could effectively predict the prognosis of stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal carcinoma patients treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy. And pCR was a positive independent prognostic factor. (authors)