The Arctic: Critical Metals, Hydrogen and Wind Power for the Energy Transition

According to a 2008 estimate, the Arctic hosts approximately 412 billion barrels of oil equivalent of conventional oil and gas resources. And since then, following the so-called shale revolution and technology improvements, numbers have gone even higher. For instance, the unconventional oil-in-place resources of the Sahtu Region alone (2,545 inhabitants, Northwest Territories, Canada) were estimated in 2015 at 191 billion barrels. Since 1945, more than 10,000 wells have been drilled across the Arctic and 400 fields eventually discovered, most of them unprofitable in a lower oil price environment. However, it is no longer uncommon to find world-class Arctic oil projects with a break-even price below USD 35 per barrel, such as Johan Castberg (Barents Sea, offshore) or Pikka Unit (Alaska, onshore). Similarly, the success of Yamal LNG and the interest in Arctic LNG-2 and Alaska LNG demonstrate that, while the Arctic remains a challenging environment to operate in, it is neither too remote nor necessarily too expensive. As part of its effort to eventually become an independent country, Greenland will launch its first ever onshore oil and gas tender in 2021 - with Chinese giants CNPC and CNOOC already said to be 'very interested'. But the Arctic has much more to offer than hydrocarbons: its potential as provider of green energy, critical metals and innovative concepts that could accelerate the energy transition globally is promising. (author)