Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in northern Europe

Energy is a fundamental human need. Heat, light and transport for individuals combined with the needs of industry have created a demand for energy which for the last 100-200 years has been met largely through consumption of fossil fuels leading to altered atmospheric composition and modification of the global climate. These effects will be realised on local scales affecting not just temperature and precipitation but also wind, radiation and other parameters. Annual mean wind speeds and wind energy density over northern Europe were significantly higher at the end of twentieth century than during the middle portion of that century, with the majority of the change being focused on the winter season. To address questions regarding possible future wind climates we employ dynamical and empirical downscaling techniques that seek to take coarse resolution output from General Circulation Models (GCM), run to provide scenarios of future climate, and develop higher resolution regional wind climates. Analyses of the wind climate during the historical record indicate that both the dynamical approach and the empirical approach are capable of generating accurate, robust and quantitative assessments of the wind climate and energy density in northern Europe, and hence that they may be of great utility to those seeking financing for, or risk management of, wind farms in the face of climate uncertainty. The synthesis of application of these downscaling tools to climate projections for northern Europe is that there is no evidence of major changes in the wind energy resource. However, more research is required to quantify the uncertainties in developing these projections and to reduce those uncertainties. Further work should also be conducted to assess the validity of these downscaling approaches in other geographical locations. (BA)