Modelling of oil spills in confined maritime basins: The case for early response in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Oil spill models are combined with bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data to model a series of oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. A total of 104 oil spill simulations, computed for 11 different locations in the Levantine Basin, show that oil slicks will reach the coast of Cyprus in four (4) to seven (7) days in summer conditions. Oil slick trajectories are controlled by prevailing winds and current eddies. Based on these results, we support the use of chemical dispersants in the very few hours after large accidental oil spills. As a corollary, we show shoreline susceptibility to vary depending on: a) differences in coastline morphology and exposure to wave action, b) the existence of uplifted wave-cut platforms, coastal lagoons and pools, and c) the presence of tourist and protected environmental areas. Mitigation work should take into account the relatively high susceptibility of parts of the Eastern Mediterranean. - Highlights: • Oil spill simulations show oil slicks will spread in four (4) to seven (7) days in the Eastern Mediterranean during summer. • Oil slick trajectories are controlled by prevailing winds and current eddies. • Chemical dispersants should be used in the very few hours after large accidental oil spills. • Mitigation work should take into account the high susceptibility of parts of the coastline. - Simulations for eleven locations in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea show that oil slicks will spread to the coast in four (4) to seven (7) days, justifying the early use of oil dispersants to mitigate them.