Influence of Global Warming on agroclimatic indices of agriculture and Intensity of droughts in Kakheti Region, East Georgia

Against the background of current global warming the temperature in Eastern Georgia is increased by 0.4-0.5 ℃, on average, which might increase by 2 ℃ and more in 2050. Such an increase of temperature shows the tendency of change (increase or decrease) in agroclimatic factors (active temperature, precipitations, hydrothermal coefficient) determining growth and development of agricultural plants, their productivity etc. According to the data of the long standing (1949-2008) meteorological observations in Kakheti region, the sums of active temperatures and the period of vegetation are increased, while the atmospheric precipitation (April-October) is decreased in some municipalities. Based on the mentioned observation data the dynamics of agroclimatic factors (sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitations) were mapped in trends showing the tendency of increase of the active temperature sums in the region which might improve the growth and development of agriculture in vertical zones. As a result of decreased atmospheric precipitations and the increase of the above mentioned sums of active temperatures (according to trends) in the active vegetation period the decrease of the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) is also marked. On the ground of the meteorological observations of sixty years (1949-2008) the hydrothermal coefficients were defined and the arid and humid conditions of the vegetation period were estimated. In particular, different kinds of frequent droughts are marked on most territories of Kakheti that require some measures to be carried out. The abovesaid studies show that global warming has both positive and negative action in vegetation period. In conditions of certain soil humidity the sum of increased active temperatures will be favorable on the territories, where agricultures suffer heat deficit. The area of plant distribution might extend higher above sea level. The tendency of the hydrothermal coefficient decrease will have a negative influence on the productivity of agricultural plants causing serious problems to agrarian sector because the weak and moderate droughts might intensify. Therefore, given global warming some preliminary activities for climate moderation are necessary. (author)