Nuclear energy: facing the future

When the International Atomic Energy Agency was established on 29 July 1957, three nuclear power plants with a capacity of 105 MWe were in operation in two IAEA Member States. By 29 July 1982, 277 power reactors in 24 countries, with a total capacity of 157,500 MWe were providing around 9% of the world's electricity. However, the reality did not keep step with technical and economic development. Over the past twelve years there have been drastic revisions in nuclear power forecasts. Projections of installed capacity for the period up to the year 2000, as reported in the IAEA's Annual Reports, are shown in Figure 2. There has been a steady decline in the projections for the short-term (1975 and 1980) and since 1975 a dramatic decrease in the projections for the longer term (1990 and 2000). The projections for 1990 and 2000 published in the 1980 Annual Report were one-third to one-fifth of those published in the 1973-1974 Annual Reports. The reasons for this drastic reduction and the revised nuclear power forecasts are briefly discussed in the paper introduced