Published January 1, 1982 | Version v1
Journal article

Developing forecasting charts for sunspot numbers

  • 1. Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801

Description

A new statistical modeling approach is used to fit models to 200 years of sunspot data and the adequate models for yearly, monthly, and daily sunspot numbers are employed to obtain the minimum mean squared error forecasts. The analysis of new models revealed a long-term 76-year period, a short-term 27-year period, and a 2.5-year period due to stratospheric winds in addition to a commonly known 11-year periodicity of the sunspots. The forecasting charts are developed in a format that can be easily read to obtain the long-term (yearly average) and short-term (daily average) predictions of sunspot numbers

Additional details

Publishing Information

Journal Title
J. Geophys. Res.
Journal Volume
87
Journal Issue
A1
Series
J. Geophys. Res.
Journal Page Range
9-16
ISSN
0022-1406

INIS

Country of Publication
United States
Country of Input or Organization
United States
INIS RN
14722456
Subject category
S79: ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY;
Descriptors DEI
FORECASTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SUNSPOTS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
Descriptors DEC
MATHEMATICS; SOLAR ACTIVITY; STATISTICS