Scenarios for shale oil, syncrude and electricity production in Estonia in the interim 1995-2025

This paper is based on the author's pre-feasibility studies of oil shale utilization in oil production, electricity generation and cement industry. The electricity generation has been calculated on the basis of 1.4 and 1.6 GW oil shale power plants with pulverized fuel combustion today. The three scenarios OILMIN, OILMED and OILMAX differ by annual oil production and different investment costs. The investments in the oil shale processing industry seem to be more profitable than those in electricity generation. It is also important to take into account that the very high sensitivity of oil market to geopolitical aspects of resources and to sudden crises, makes the crude price a stochastic parameter, which loses its indicative character for long term economic choice. Therefore it will be very important to have the electric power plants with flexible combined oil shale and coal combustion. 4 figs., 4 tabs., 6 refs