Greenhouse effect: analysis, incertitudes, consequences

A general presentation of climatic changes due to greenhouse effect with their consequences is analysed. After a schematic description of this effect a simplified atmospheric model (box model) is proposed. This model integrates the main feedback effects and quantifies them. The effects of astronomic and atmospheric factors on climatic changes are analyzed and compared with classical paleoclimatic results. This study shows the need of good global modelization to evaluate long term quantification of climatic greenhouse effects according to the main time lag of the several biospheric boxes. An overview of biologic and agronomic consequences is given to promote new research subjects and to orientate protecting and conservative biospheric actions