Economic prospective study of the nuclear electricity generation sector

In his letter dated May 7. 1999, the French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin asked Jean-Michel Charpin, Benjamin Dessus and Rene Pellat to carry out a 'study of the economic data for the whole of the nuclear sector, in particular downstream of the nuclear combustion cycle, including reprocessing'. This report had to include comparisons with other production methods for electricity and take account of environmental costs. The Prime Minister stressed in this same letter his wish to see the inquiry 'examine all of the factors forming the basis for a public decision, including intrinsic competitiveness, external factors and long-term effects, as well as the impact of different production methods upon our CO2 gas emissions and control over the downstream part of the nuclear cycle'. Two series of questions are central to this study. The first concerns the existing nuclear facilities. In view of the inertia of a French electrical production system which is largely based upon nuclear energy and in which major investments have already been made, what room for manoeuvre remains for the public authorities and operators concerning the future of these stations? In particular: What are the economic conditions and consequences of possibly prolonging the average active life of the existing stations? What are the economic and environmental consequences of decisions concerning the continuation or stoppage of the reprocessing of irradiated fuel produced by the existing stations? The second concerns new investments likely to meet electrical demand under various scenarios. In particular: what are the technologies that may be envisaged (nuclear and non-nuclear) and in what timescale? What are the changes underway in the world that are likely to have an influence on the choices made in France? What will be the environmental consequences of these choices by the year 2050, in particular regarding greenhouse gas emissions and the quantities of transuranic elements to be stored? What will be the economic consequences of these choices? The aim of the study is not to answer all the pending questions but to give elements to enable people to make choices knowing the various consequences of their choices. This study has already created some reactions. We are, hereafter publishing two of them: one by Achille Ferrari and one by Bernard Laponche. (authors)