Sufficiency of the Nuclear Fuel

Estimation of the nuclear fuel sufficiency is required for rational decision making on long-term energy strategy. In the past an argument often invoked against nuclear energy was that uranium resources are inadequate. At present, when climate change associated with CO2 emission is a major concern, one novel strong argument for nuclear energy is that it can produce large amounts of energy without the CO2 emission. Increased interest in nuclear energy is evident, and a new look into uranium resources is relevant. We examined three different scenarios of nuclear capacity growth. The low growth of 0.4 percent per year in nuclear capacity is assumed for the first scenario. The moderate growth of 1.5 percent per year in nuclear capacity preserving the present share in total energy production is assumed for the second scenario. We estimated draining out time periods for conventional resources of uranium using once through fuel cycle for the both scenarios. For the first and the second scenario we obtained the draining out time periods for conventional uranium resources of 154 years and 96 years, respectively. These results are, as expected, in agreement with usual evaluations. However, if nuclear energy is to make a major impact on CO2 emission it should contribute much more in the total energy production than at present level of 6 percent. We therefore defined the third scenario which would increase nuclear share in the total energy production from 6 percent in year 2020 to 30 percent by year 2060 while the total world energy production would grow by 1.5 percent per year. We also looked into the uranium requirement for this scenario, determining the time window for introduction of uranium or thorium reprocessing and for better use of uranium than what is the case in the once through fuel cycle. The once through cycle would be in this scenario sustainable up to about year 2060 providing most of the expected but undiscovered conventional uranium resources were turned into identified categories. It may be concluded that, under discussed conditions uranium resources will be more than adequate to fuel foreseeable expansions of nuclear power.(author)