Assessment of biofuels supporting policies using the BioTrans model

The introduction of advanced, 2nd generation biofuels is a difficult process to forecast. Policies may impact the timing of their introduction and the future biofuels mix. The least-cost optimization model BioTrans supports policy analyses on these issues. It includes costs for all parts of the supply chain, and endogenous learning for all biofuels technologies, including cost reductions through scale. BioTrans shows that there are significant lock-in effects favouring traditional biofuels, and that the optimal biofuels mix by 2030 is path dependent. The model captures important barriers for the introduction of emerging technologies, thereby providing valuable quantitative information that can be used in analyses of biofuels supporting policies. It is shown that biodiesel from oil crops will remain a cost effective way of producing biofuels in the medium term at moderate target levels. Aiming solely at least-cost biofuel production is in conflict with a longer term portfolio approach on biofuels, and the desire to come to biofuels with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. Lowering the targets because of environmental constraints delays the development of 2nd generation biofuels, unless additional policy measures (such as specific sub-targets for these fuels) are implemented.