Development of an investment decision tool for aged nuclear power plants under uncertainty

The nuclear power generating stock in Japan, which provides 30% or more of the nationwide electricity supply in recent years, is heading into the era of plant aging as those units over 40 years of operation emerge in 2010 and onward. Under accumulating uncertainties surrounding investment decisions, one of the key questions is how best to manage the existing capacity by choosing a wisest option among dismantling, refurbishment, and replacement. This report attempts to develop a methodology to analyze investment decision on aged nuclear units based on real-option analysis, and then presents illustrative simulation runs to demonstrate functions of the numerical models. Major findings are summarized as follows: a) When compared with the conventional net present value (NPV) method, the proposed model is capable to deal with uncertainty explicitly by taking volatility in the formula. Also, for the replacement option, one can choose optimal timings of the dismantling the new plant independently. b) As the profitability increases, the model suggests different investment option as optimal, starting from dismantling to replacement, further to refurbishment, and again to replacement as the most basic pattern. Additionally, where two of the strategies have similar values, postponement of both decisions can be optimal. Through these exercises, the proposed methodology proved itself capable for raising valuable implications to investment decisions in managing the production fleet. (author)