Challenges and pitfalls in implementing Thailand's ethanol plan: Integrated policy coherence and gap analysis

Highlights: • The ethanol plan and relevant policies in Thailand are investigated. • Policy coherence and gaps are determined using an integrated analysis. • Agricultural zoning of crops does not secure the ethanol feedstock supply. • Ineffective state mechanisms are identified for slow-growing demand. • A combined coherence and gap analysis proved useful for the policy analysis. -- Abstract: Thailand's ethanol policy is embedded in the Alternative Energy and Development Plan 2015 (AEDP 2015). The policy goal is to increase ethanol production and consumption in 2036 at 223% of the baseline in 2015. A large demand for feedstock supplies, mainly molasses and cassava to meet the policy target causes concerns over their sufficiency. However, oversupply of ethanol has been observed occasionally. Since ethanol production and consumption are relevant to a number of policies, incoherence and gaps may contribute to the shortcomings. By applying a combined coherence and gap analysis, it is shown that crop zoning is irrelevant to and ineffective in securing the supply of ethanol. On the other hand, demand saturation is primarily due to the ineffectiveness of the state mechanisms. Key factors contributing to the problem are low prices of crude oil, high prices of feedstocks, managing availability of and accessibility to certain types of blended fuels in favor of the low blended ones, incorrect understanding of consumers towards high blended fuels and the public's recent interest towards electric vehicles. Political factors may also account for the slow-growing demand. The developed method is proved to be useful in determining effectiveness of interrelated policies dealing with ethanol.