Building Scenarios for Greener Gas

In the Netherlands, the Greening of Gas project has been started to investigate the feasibility, from ecological, economic and technological perspectives, of adding hydrogen to the Dutch natural gas network. The preliminary findings of the project suggest that steam methane reforming of natural gas provides the most logical choice for the initial stages of a transition to a hydrogen economy. This presents an opportunity for research into synergistic options for hydrogen and natural gas in a combined energy supply. The approach adopted for exploring the feasibility of this idea of synergy is through the creation of plausible, internally consistent scenarios. In this paper we describe the way that the scenarios were designed and how they provide a framework for designing effective policies. These robust scenarios are a critical first-step for the development of an adaptive policy and a flexible investment strategy aimed at effecting the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. (authors)