Potential of greenhouse gas emission reduction in Thai road transport by ethanol bus technology

Highlights: ► Energy demand modeling in Thai road transportation sector was developed. ► Such model was used to assess environment impact by ethanol bus technology (ED95). ► Ethanol bus technology (ED95) shows beneficial impacts to Thailand. ► Increase in ethanol demand and decrease in GHG emission in Thailand by ethanol bus. ► Ethanol bus (ED95) has been successfully demonstrated in Thailand. -- Abstract: Over decades, Thailand energy consumption has been concentrated in three main sectors, namely manufacturing, power and transportation. Energy consumption in transportation sector has also been dominated by road transport due to limited coverage by rail and water transportation. Hence, road transport has been a major contributor for greenhouse gas emission in Thailand over recent years. Along with global warming concern throughout the world, Thailand has taken various adaptation and mitigation measures, especially the strong policy push to use carbon–neutral biofuel in transportation sector due to Thailand competitive advantage in agriculture sector. National Renewable Energy Plan (2008–2022) has set challenging targets of 9 and 4.5 million liters/day of ethanol and biodiesel consumption by 2022, respectively. Various blends of ethanol in gasoline (10%, 20% and 85%) and biodiesel in diesel (up to 5%) have been commercially available. However, since current consumption of diesel is twice as much of gasoline, ethanol blend in gasoline would widen the imbalance consumption of gasoline and diesel. The present study however offers an insight into a possibility to use ethanol as diesel substitute. A case study of ethanol bus technology was investigated by recourse to energy demand modeling. Necessary data, such as a number of vehicles (NVs) for various vehicle types, vehicle kilometer of travel (VKT) and fuel economy (FE) were collected, with reasonable assumptions made for those unavailable data, to construct predicative energy demand model. Scenario analysis on ethanol bus introduction was conducted to assess reduction of fossil fuel and greenhouse gas emission by increasing the use of ethanol to achieve ethanol consumption target in 2022. Successful demonstration of ethanol bus operation in Thailand will be briefly mentioned to give confidence for larger project implementation in the future.