Are radioisotope shortages a thing of the past?

Since June 2009, the NEA and its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) have examined the causes of ⁹⁹Mo/^99mTc supply shortages and developed a policy approach, including principles and supporting recommendations to address those causes. The NEA has also reviewed the global ⁹⁹Mo/^99mTc supply situation periodically, using the most up-to-date data from supply chain participants, to highlight periods of reduced supply and underscore the case for implementing the HLG-MR policy approach in a timely and globally-consistent manner. In 2012, the NEA released a ⁹⁹Mo supply and demand update for the period up to 2030 (A Supply and Demand Update of the Molybdenum-99 Market, OECD/NEA, 2012), identifying periods of low supply relative to demand. This paper presents the preliminary results from an updated ⁹⁹Mo supply and demand forecast, focusing on the potentially critical 2015-2020 period, when two major ⁹⁹Mo producers (the NRU reactor in Canada and the OSIRIS reactor in France) are scheduled to cease ⁹⁹Mo irradiations. On the demand side, the NEA had previously released a study with the results from a global survey of future demand for ⁹⁹Mo/^99mTc (OECD-NEA, 2011), devising a scenario based on a data assessment by an expert advisory group. In the current analysis, the expected demand growth rate and total demand have been modified, based on the latest information from supply chain participants. On the supply side, the NEA has updated the list of current and planned new ⁹⁹Mo/^99mTc irradiation and processing projects. The modelling results incorporate revisions to production start/end dates, potential additional projects, and impacts of converting to the use of low-enriched uranium (LEU) targets on ⁹⁹Mo/^99mTc capacity and production. The supply forecast horizon (2015 to 2020) has been chosen to reflect upcoming, important changes in global production capacity - the planned shutdowns in Canada and France, and the expected commissioning of new reactor- and non-reactor-based projects in Europe, the United States, South America, and Australia. (orig.)