Physico-mathematical modelling of radionuclide behaviour

The response of SPA Typhoon and other institutes of the USSR Goskomhydromet to the Chernobyl accident is described in this paper, in particular the monitoring of the radiological situation and forecasting of the environmental consequences of the accident. The difficulties encountered, consequent upon a lack of preparedness at the time for responding to accidents of the scale of Chernobyl, are identified, together with lessons for the future. The importance of prompt analyses and forecasts of the radiological situation following an accident for effective emergency management is highlighted. A number of requirements are identified in order to achieve a timely and effective response to any future accident: these include a suite of models to describe the behaviour of contaminants in soil, water and air for different space and time-scales; effective communication between computers and their data banks; data banks on meteorological and hydrological information, contamination of environmental media, geographic information (e.g. soil types, characteristics of catchments, river, topography), etc; effective interface with laboratory and field measurement/monitoring groups and the availability of suitable decision support tools. (Author)