A macro-micro outlook on fuel poverty in 2035 France

The national strategy on energy transition currently underway in France identifies fuel poverty as one of the major constraints weighing on France's energy future. To contribute to this reflection, we develop a first prospective analysis of fuel poverty in the 2035 France outlined by 4 influential macro-economic scenarios. To do so we mobilise a 'macro-micro' approach that articulates computable general equilibrium modelling and extensive household survey data. At the core of this approach, a systemic modelling of household energy demand innovatively draws on urban economics research. Our modelling results show that both the number and share in total household count of fuel-poor households should increase between our 2006 reference year and our 2035 horizon, under our 4 macro-economic scenarios and according to the two distinct operational measures of the phenomenon. This increase is furthermore concentrated on the poorer first income quintile, which shifts from concentrating half to 3 quarters of the domestic energy expenses of fuel-poor households. However, the moderate extent of these expenses when measured against GDP allows envisaging some socialisation of them, even under the double constraint of contained public deficits and a constant fiscal pressure. (authors)