MODARIA WG5: Towards a practical guidance for including uncertainties in the results of dose assessment of routine releases

MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) project was launched in 2012 with the aim of improving the capabilities in radiation dose assessment by means of acquisition of improved data for model testing, model testing and comparison, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values, development of improved methods and exchange of information. The project focuses on areas where uncertainties remain in the predictive capability of environmental models, emphasizing in reducing associated uncertainties or developing new approaches to strengthen the evaluation of the radiological impact. Within MODARIA, four main areas were defined, one of them devoted to Uncertainty and Variability. In this area four working groups were included, Working Group 5 dealing with the 'uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides'. Whether doses are estimated by using measurement data, by applying models, or through a combination of measurements and calculations, the variability and uncertainty contribute to a distribution of possible values. The degree of variability and uncertainty is represented by the shape and extent of that distribution. The main objective of WG5 is to explore how to consider uncertainties and variabilities in the results of assessment of doses in planned situations for controlling the impact of routine releases from radioactive and nuclear installations to the environment. The final aim is to produce guidance for the calculation of uncertainties in these exposure situations and for the presentation of such results to the different stakeholders. To achieve that objective the main tasks identified were: to find tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments in routine radioactive discharges, to define scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available for the testing of methodologies, to discuss the distributions of parameters and data applicable, to carry out assessments in those scenarios performing an intercomparison of different methods and to find how the results of this kind of calculations could be presented and interpreted by decision makers. This work will present the advances achieved in the group. (authors)