Dark after Chernobyl? Closing former Soviet power reactors

International pressure to close some of the old nuclear reactors built by the former Soviet Union (FSU) has accelerated in the period since that country's dissolution. This pressure has been countered, however, by the argument that resulting electricity shortfalls would hasten ongoing social and economic dislocations. Under feasible economic scenarios, this paper identifies which regions would likely experience electricity supply shortfalls, outlines what adjustments in electricity transfers between regions could offset the shortfalls, and estimates the implied costs and schedules of related power plant and transmission construction projects. Costs of closure range from less than US$1 billion to as much as US$16 billion. (author)