Electricity's contribution to UK self-sufficiency

At the turn of the century, when oil prices are expected to be higher than today and still rising, the British oil and gas reserves will be declining, production will be falling, and imports of oil will be increasing. The key issues in this study are: future levels of electricity demand, particularly the extent by which electricity replaces gas as UK North Sea production declines, so as to moderate the need for gas imports or synthetic gas production; the consequences for coal demand, and the possible need for coal imports, arising from different levels of nuclear power production; and the overall implications for UK energy imports of alternative policies and uncertain out-comes for electricity supply. We conclude that the level of energy imports is likely to rise quite rapidly after the turn of the century. By the year 2020, and with nuclear power providing 20 per cent of total electricity, energy imports are expected to meet between 24 and 40 per cent of total energy requirements. With nuclear power accounting for 70 per cent of electricity supply by 2020, energy imports would probably lie in the range 4 to 20 per cent of total needs. (author)