Reference computations of public dose and cancer risk from airborne releases of plutonium. Nuclear safety technical report

This report presents results of computations of doses and the associated health risks of postulated accidental atmospheric releases from the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) of one gram of weapons-grade plutonium in a form that is respirable. These computations are intended to be reference computations that can be used to evaluate a variety of accident scenarios by scaling the dose and health risk results presented here according to the amount of plutonium postulated to be released, instead of repeating the computations for each scenario. The MACCS2 code has been used as the basis of these computations. The basis and capabilities of MACCS2 are summarized, the parameters used in the evaluations are discussed, and results are presented for the doses and health risks to the public, both the Maximum Offsite Individual (a maximally exposed individual at or beyond the plant boundaries) and the population within 50 miles of RFP. A number of different weather scenarios are evaluated, including constant weather conditions and observed weather for 1990, 1991, and 1992. The isotopic mix of weapons-grade plutonium will change as it ages, the 241Pu decaying into 241Am. The 241Am reaches a peak concentration after about 72 years. The doses to the bone surface, liver, and whole body will increase slightly but the dose to the lungs will decrease slightly. The overall cancer risk will show almost no change over this period. This change in cancer risk is much smaller than the year-to-year variations in cancer risk due to weather. Finally, x/Q values are also presented for other applications, such as for hazardous chemical releases. These include the x/Q values for the MOI, for a collocated worker at 100 meters downwind of an accident site, and the x/Q value integrated over the population out to 50 miles