Evaluation of options for life cycle management of feeder cracking at the Point Lepreau Generating Station

The CANDU industry has a predictive capability for most Heat Transport System (HTS) degradation issues that allows utilities to apply cost-effective maintenance programs. The standard approach for maintenance programs is focussed inspection and planned replacement. Some examples of degradation issues with deterministic failure rates are feeder thinning, and pressure tube elongation and deuterium ingress. However, the cracking observed in Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS) outlet feeder first bends is one notable exception to this behaviour. A predictive capability for feeder cracking does not currently exist for several reasons. First, the mechanism of feeder cracking, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), has to some degree a random nature. Second, although a probable environment causing cracking has been identified, the precise stress and environmental conditions for feeder crack initiation and propagation have not been defined. Finally, the very low incidence of feeder cracking observed to-date (four, all at PLGS) precludes a probabilistic or statistical prediction of failure rate. Generally, utilities select a Life Cycle Management Plan that ensures safe operation and has the lowest Net Present Value cost. In preparing a Feeder Life Cycle Management Plan, New Brunswick Power (NBP) has recognized that the Net Present Value cost is very sensitive to failure rate. Since the failure rate for feeder cracking is not well defined, the following three scenarios were considered to bound the probability of future failures at PLGS. (author)