Permafrozen temperature regime affected by climate variability

The paper reports on the numerical-analytical solution for the problem of periodically constant heat exchange in permafrost. There are no initial conditions and the task at issue is based upon the soil conductive heat exchange simulation. In addition, at thawing or freezing, the parameters of water/ice transition, geothermal temperature gradient and the snow cover impact upon the soil heat transition to outer ground have also been taken into account. This solution is governed by the following characteristics: annual air temperature change; winter precipitation accumulation; thermo-physical soil properties either in thawed or in frozen state. Considering the adduced solution the following parameters can be determined: the soil temperature at zero year amplitude level; the frost penetration lower boundary depth; and others. The calculated data are presented and compared with the results of previous field tests. The influence of the quantitative characteristics, such as variable climate and winter precipitation accumulation, upon the soil temperature pattern will be shown; in particular, the frost penetration lower boundary depth is varied by yearly average temperature increase or decrease. The regions where one-two degree yearly average temperature increases result in total permafrost disappearance have been located