Experience in Modelling Nuclear Energy Systems with MESSAGE: Country Case Studies

Member States have recognized the increasing need to model future nuclear power scenarios in order to develop strategies for sustainable nuclear energy systems. The IAEA model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts (MESSAGE) code is a tool that supports energy analysis and planning in Member States. This publication documents the experience gained on modelling and scenario analysis of nuclear energy systems (NES) using the MESSAGE code through various case studies performed by the participating Member States on evaluation and planning for nuclear energy sustainability at the regional or national level. The publication also elaborates on experience gained in modelling of global nuclear energy systems with a focus on specific aspects of collaboration among technology holder and technology user countries and the introduction of innovative nuclear technologies. It presents country case studies covering a variety of nuclear energy systems based on a once-through fuel cycle and a closed fuel cycle for thermal reactors, fast reactors and advanced systems. The feedback from case studies proves the analytical capabilities of the MESSAGE model and highlight the path forward for further advancements in the MESSAGE code and NES modelling.