The LWR fuel cycle in the Federal Republic of Germany

Within the framework of a system analysis conducted to forecast the nuclear output capacity that would presumably be installed by the year 2000 in the Federal Republic of Germany, the demands for uranium, enrichment and reprocessing, the fabrication of fuel elements and transportation have been determined. The factors of uncertainty involved in forecasts concerning the demand are discussed. The study shows how the demand for uranium and fuel cycle services is being covered in the FRG and what important aspects are not yet secured. After a brief survey of the Federal Republic's plans concerning the reprocessing and ultimate disposal issues, the pending problems related to the technology, organization and financing of this sector of the fuel cycle are analysed. The paper deals with the past and probable future development of fuel cycle costs together with their influence on the further development of nuclear energy as a whole. Whether and to what extent the considerable increase in the costs for uranium, enrichment and reprocessing occurring simultaneously with the rise of capital expense for new nuclear power plants has affected the profitability of nuclear energy as compared with fossil primary energies is examined. Finally, the paper discusses how the security of supply for nuclear power plants with fuel and all necessary services could be improved under economically justifiable conditions, and what measures could be taken in this area by the electric utilities, the fuel cycle industries and the public authorities. (author)