CSP electricity cost evolution and grid parities based on the IEA roadmaps

The main object of this paper consists in the development of a mathematical closed-form expression for the evaluation, in the period 2010–2050, of the levelized costs of energy (LCOE) of concentrating solar power (CSP) electricity. For this purpose, the LCOE is calculated using a life-cycle cost method, based on the net present value, the discounted cash flow technique and the technology learning curve approach. By this procedure, the LCOE corresponding to CSP electricity is calculated as a function of ten independent variables. Among these parameters, special attention has been put on the evaluation of the available solar resource, the analysis of the IEA predicted values for the cumulative installed capacity, the initial (2010) cost of the system, the discount and learning rates, etc. One significant contribution of our work is that the predicted evolution of the LCOEs strongly depend, not only on the particular values of the cumulative installed capacity function in the targeted years, but mainly on the specific curved time-paths which are followed by this function. The results obtained in this work are shown both graphically and numerically. Finally, the implications that the results could have in energy planning policies and grid parity calculations are discussed. - Highlights: ► A mathematical closed expression has been developed for calculating the evolution of CSP electricity costs. ► Our technique for the prediction of CSP electricity costs and grid parities is based on IEA Roadmaps. ► The time-table (2010–2050) of cumulative installed CSP capacity is key to electricity cost predictions. ► CSP grid parities can occur within next decade for sites with proper solar resources.