Risks of shipping plutonium by truck, train, and cargo aircraft

Risk is defined as the product of the probability of a release of material to the environment and the consequences resulting from the release. The methodology is composed of four basic steps: a detailed description of the transportation system, the identification of possible material release sequences, the evaluation of the probabilities and the consequences of the releases, and calculation and assessment of the risk. The system description includes projected industry characteristics, amounts to be shipped and the number of shipments required, material characteristics, transport mode and carrier, container types, routes (and any restrictions), and weather and population zones. Release sequences are identified using fault tree analyses. Releases are evaluated using container failure data and mathematical models for dispersion and health effects. The risk is then calculated and compared to other known risks