Statistical problems arising from simulation of a high-throughput nuclear facility

Shortages in traditional energy sources, such as oil and natural gas, have placed greater emphasis on alternative fuel sources. With an already developed technological base and cost history, nuclear power is an attractive option. However, the public's attitude toward recent terrorism has generated strong demands for improved safeguards measures to deter, detect, and protect against diversion of special nuclear material (SNM). To encourage improved safeguards accountability, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been considering the use of performance oriented regulations to supplement those currently used. A study, sponsored by NRC/Office of Standards Development, was conducted to evaluate the controllable unit approach (CUA) to meeting performance oriented regulations. The study results are used to provide the NRC with a methodology that systematically and iteratively compares the actual situation to the need before additions or refinements are imposed. And because the existing or proposed system is mathematically modeled, modifications to the process for any reason can be tested quickly for their effect on material control before implementation. A summary flow diagram of the CUA methodology is shown and described