Towards a more complex energy geopolitics?

In the context of the energy transition, the deployment of renewable energies appears, at first glance, to be free from the traditional geopolitical stakes associated with energy. Indeed, for many of them (wind, solar, small hydro), renewable energies come from cyclical, renewable natural resources (tide, wind, sun), unlike non-renewable, more geographically concentrated fossil resources. The notions of availability and accessibility, central to the traditional definition of energy security, should therefore take a back seat. However, these notions need to be reconsidered in the context of energy transition policies requiring non-energy resources that indirectly influence energy security, such as all non-ferrous, ferrous and rare-earth resources, as well as patents on decarbonation technologies. Indeed, dependence on fossil resources could be replaced by dependence on other resources - strategic metals, structural materials, etc. - with a major technological component. This is essential not only to understand the new competitive challenges posed by decarbonization technologies, but also to define the conceptual frameworks needed to disseminate these technologies in the countries of the South. The question of international cooperation on this point is fundamental, and forms an integral part of the many issues at stake in the geopolitics of renewable energies. The spread of renewable energies in the global energy mix is also likely to affect fossil fuel-producing countries, notably through a slowdown in their export volumes, especially of oil and coal from 2040 onwards. For them, this challenge to the security of demand could have far-reaching macro-economic implications, particularly in terms of investment, and ultimately imply a change in their development model, with consequences in terms of power on the international stage