Panorama 2016 - Refining outlook for 2035

The rising influence of objectives intended to address the energy transition in global industry helps to perpetuate a high degree of uncertainty about changes in the transportation sector, currently a bastion of the oil industry. How can the growing need for individual mobility be met while reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in a world of open international competition? The refining sector is gaining strength in Asia and the Middle East to the detriment of Europe and North America, reflecting demand and the intrinsic competitiveness of various geographic regions. The 2025 worldwide roll-out (2020 in Europe) of a bunker fuel grade below 0.5 wt% (percentage by weight) in sulphur could experience delays, given the number of installations to be completed. Finally, the reversal of the 'all diesel' trend in the European transport market is a positive change for the European refining industry. (authors)