Computational method to estimate Single Event Upset rates in an accelerator environment

We present a new method to estimate Single Event Upsets (SEU) in a hadron accelerator environment, which is characterized by a complicated radiation spectrum. Our method is based on first principles, i.e. an explicit generation and transport of nuclear fragments and detailed accounting for energy loss by ionization. However, instead of simulating also the behaviour of the circuit, we use a Weibull fit to experimental heavy-ion SEU data in order to quantify the SEU sensitivity of the circuit. Thus, in principle, we do not need to know details about the circuit and our method is almost free of adjustable parameters - we only need a reasonable guess for the Sensitive Volume (SV) size. We show by a comparison with experimental data that our method predicts the SEU cross sections for protons rather accurately. We then indicate with an example how our method could be applied to predict SEU rates at the forthcoming LHC experiments