Forecasting analysis of runoff for reservoir regulation of dams and weirs in terms of hydro power plant operation

In order to meet the needs of Hydropower Plant (HPP) production new algorithms and software were developed for daily, seasonal, annual and long-term control of the runoff for the design of dam and weirs. This control is carried out for monitored periods from 20 to 50 years. The control depends on economic considerations, namely that the accepted probability of required water power is 90%, i.e. concerning the runoff and in this way for the useful volume of water dams. The research is accomplished by a design with the observations. First the hydrometric stations are selected at the available analogy with the building project and then the correlative connection is found assessed by general and true correlative coefficients. The transferring to the project of the observations for the average annual and average monthly water discharges is made with the coefficient of the analogy. The theoretical probability curves are chosen with a minimum dispersion. By the last curves the average monthly distributions are settled with probability from 2% to 90% by statistical method. During the investigated period of the regulation the volumes of discharge, overflow and shortage are calculated as and the determination for the accepted volume of the reservoir if the normative probability of the need is executed. As well the power output of the HPP and its participation in the coverage of the charge diagram on the peak load, under peak load, daily and nightly part are determined in separate observed or forecasting periods. The upper problems about the design and the operation of HPP, water output, reservoir volume and coverage of the charge diagram are solved by iterations. Practical examples are given for the runoff and for the time forecasting system.