Underground water stress release models

The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models (SRM), and obtain the underground water stress release model (USRM). We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.