Climate-Related Scenarios for Financial Stability Assessment: an Application to France - Working Paper Series no. 774
Creators
- Allen, Thomas1
- Dees, Stephane1
- Boissinot, Jean1
- Caicedo Graciano, Carlos Mateo1
- Chouard, Valerie1
- Gaye, Annabelle de1
- Devulder, Antoine1
- Lisack, Noemie1
- Rabate, Marie1
- Svartzman, Romain1
- Clerc, Laurent2
- Diot, Sebastien2
- Pegoraro, Fulvio2
- Vernet, Lucas2
- Banque de France, Eurosysteme, 1, rue de La Vrilliere, 75001 Paris (France)
- 1. Banque de France (France)
- 2. Autorite de controle prudentiel et de resolution - ACPR (France)
Description
This paper proposes an analytical framework to quantify the impacts of climate policy and transition narratives on economic and financial variables necessary for financial risk assessment. Focusing on transition risks, the scenarios considered include unexpected increases in carbon prices and productivity shocks to reflect disorderly transition processes. The modelling framework relies on a suite of models, calibrated on the high-level reference scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Relying on this approach, the ACPR has selected a number of quantitative scenarios to be submitted to a group of voluntary banks and insurance companies to conduct the first bottom-up pilot climate-related risk assessment. (authors)
Abstract (French)
Ce document propose un cadre analytique pour quantifier les impacts de scenarios de transition et de politiques climatiques sur les variables economiques et financieres necessaires a l'evaluation des risques financiers. En se concentrant sur les risques de transition, les scenarios envisages incluent des hausses non-anticipees du prix du carbone et des chocs de productivite refletant des processus de transition climatique desordonnes. Le cadre de modelisation s'appuie sur une suite de modeles, calibres sur les scenarios de reference de haut niveau du Reseau des banques centrales et des superviseurs pour le verdissement du systeme financier (NGFS). S'appuyant sur cette approche, l'ACPR a selectionne un certain nombre de scenarios quantitatifs qui seront soumis a un groupe de banques et de compagnies d'assurance volontaires pour mener son premier exercice pilote d'evaluation du risque climatique.
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Additional details
Additional titles
- Original title (English)
- Scenarios de transition climatique pour l'evaluation de la stabilite financiere: Une application a la France
Publishing Information
- Imprint Pagination
- 68 p.
- Report number
- INIS-FR--23-1249
INIS
- Country of Publication
- France
- Country of Input or Organization
- France
- INIS RN
- 54107312
- Subject category
- S29: ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; S54: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES;
- Resource subtype / Literary indicator
- Numerical Data
- Descriptors DEI
- CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC IMPACT; EMISSIONS TAX; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; FINANCIAL DATA; FINANCING; FOSSIL FUELS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; PRICES; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; PRODUCTIVITY; PROJECTION SERIES; RISK ASSESSMENT; SECTORAL ANALYSIS; TIME DEPENDENCE
- Descriptors DEC
- CALCULATION METHODS; CARBON COMPOUNDS; CARBON OXIDES; CHALCOGENIDES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; DATA; ECONOMICS; ENERGY MODELS; ENERGY SOURCES; FORECASTING; FUELS; GOVERNMENT POLICIES; INFORMATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NUMERICAL DATA; OXIDES; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS; SIMULATION; TAXES
Optional Information
- Notes
- 63 refs.; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses