Biomass for energy or materials. The European BRED project

This paper discusses recent model calculation results for the Western European MARKAL MATTER 4.2 model. The results show that the use of biomass for energy and materials applications will increase by up to 200 Mt (compared to the case with no permit price) if significant greenhouse gas policies (i.e. emission permit price of 200 EUR/t CO2) are introduced. On the energy side, the main increase occurs in the production of electricity from waste and residues, and in the production of transportation fuels. On the materials side, the main increase occurs in the substitution of petrochemical feedstocks. The results also show that competing afforestation strategies have an even higher relevance for emission reduction than energy and materials crops. These results differ remarkably from earlier biomass modelling studies. The differences can be attributed to a number of distinct methodological features (e.g. accounting for the changing energy and materials system configuration and discounted cost optimisation) which have not been considered in previous studies. As a result of permit prices, GHG emissions decrease significantly: more than 50% reduction (compared to the 1990 level of 4300 Mt CO2) is achieved at a permit price of 200 EUR/t CO2. The total contribution of biomass strategies can amount to 400 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2030. 12 refs