Development of Threat Scenarios for Risk Assessment of Nuclear Facilities

There are many risks that can threaten a nuclear facility. Risks can be divided into two categories: safety and security. Before the events of September 11, safety related risks have been more of a focus than security related ones. But the tragic events of September 11 have made security risks as a prime concern. Compared with safety issues, security risks are difficult to evaluate because of their unpredictability. In order to secure a nuclear facility, suitable measures should be prepared based on an assessment of potential risks. Several methods for risk assessment have been developed. Risk assessment is performed based on threat scenarios. Therefore, it is important to develop threat scenarios that reflected the situation of the facility to be evaluated in order to obtain reliable results. Threat scenarios should include items such as: type and number of adversaries, weapons, equipment, vehicles and consequences due to an attack. In this work, we have analyzed the components of a threat scenario and developed possible scenarios based on it