Athabasca, Cold Lake and the future

It is suggested that Alberta oil sands have the potential to sustain and increase the wealth creation capacity of the Canadian petroleum sector now and well into the next century. Realizing this potential in the present-day competitive and interconnected world crude oil market is a challenge to be addressed in four areas: markets, operations, technology, and stakeholder support. Real price improvement in the world oil market is not expected in the near future, given near-static demand and a continuously increasing worldwide supply potential. Even in such a market, there are specialized niches where Canadian heavy oil should be competitive. These markets are continental and are mainly high- and medium-conversion refineries and upgraders. Demand for Canadian heavy oil is forecast to grow ca 4%/y to over 800,000 bbl/d by 2000. Supply will closely track demand 1995-98 and be slightly below demand before 1995 and after 1998. Improvements in existing operations to lower production costs and increase efficiency are being made at the Cold Lake and Syncrude facilities. The development of technology to improve recovery and lower supply costs will trigger further development, and impressive gains have already been realized as a result from ongoing research. The final condition needed to allow the oil sand sector to realize its potential is informed and supportive stakeholders (investors, customers, governments, and communities), who need to understand the unique attributes and potential awards of the oil sand business. 6 figs