Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment

This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households' welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs. - Highlights: ► Geological determinants behind Hubbert curves in a general equilibrium framework. ► We endogenize the interactions between Peak Oil dates, oil prices and growth trends. ► Close Peak Oil dates lead to different trends of oil prices, exportation and growth. ► Low short-term prices benefit to the long-term macroeconomy of oil exporters. ► High short-term prices hedge oil importers against economic tensions after Peak Oil.