The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness