Mathematical model for the formulation of runoff scenarios before possible variants of the climatic change

The application of mathematical modelling to evaluate the hydrological response of different river basins under multiple climate scenarios has become a wide spread tool. However, most of the existing models demand high volumes of data and high data quality. Usually, in Latin America not only the amount of data is scarce, but also the quality of it is very poor, so it is difficult to implement mathematical models with good validation results. Additionally, those models have to be applied over big geographical regions making the hydrological modelling process an almost impossible task. All these factors are pointing to the necessity to develop low data demanding models with few data quality requirements. In this light, this paper shows an attempt to develop a hydrological model under these restrictions. The results shown are concerned with the validation assessment of a study case in Colombia over an extensive region for the Catatumbo watershed. Finally, the improvements currently under implementation are shown